Tactical production planning for uncertain seasonal demand


Sahraei, Pardis ; Fleischmann, Moritz



Document Type: Conference presentation
Year of publication: 2022
Conference title: OR 2022, Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR)
Location of the conference venue: Karlsruhe, Germany
Date of the conference: 06.-09.09.2022
Related URLs:
Publication language: English
Institution: Business School > ABWL u. Logistik (Fleischmann 2009-)
Subject: 330 Economics
Abstract: Seasonal demand patterns force companies to pre-produce to fulfill peak-season demand in a competitive market without wasting idle resources off-season. However, market uncertainty and long production lead times complicate corresponding production and inventory planning, since production cannot react quickly to new demand information that is gathered as the season is approaching. Production planning has to take this uncertainty into account. In this paper, we model demand uncertainty in a novel way by expressing it through seasonal rather than monthly parameters. To estimate these parameters, we cluster the products, based on relevant structural features. We then use the obtained error distributions for sampling-based tactical production and inventory planning.




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