Inference to the best explanation in uncertain evidential situations

Trpin, Borut ; Pellert, Max

Document Type: Article
Year of publication: 2019
The title of a journal, publication series: The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science : BJPS
Volume: 70
Issue number: 4
Page range: 978-1001
Place of publication: Chicago, Ill.
Publishing house: University of Chicago Press
ISSN: 0007-0882 , 1464-3537
Publication language: English
Institution: Business School > Data Science in the Economic and Social Sciences (Strohmaier, 2022-)
Subject: 330 Economics
Abstract: It has recently been argued that a non-Bayesian probabilistic version of inference to the best explanation (IBE*) has a number of advantages over Bayesian conditionalization (Douven [2013]; Douven and Wenmackers [2017]). We investigate how IBE* could be generalized to uncertain evidential situations and formulate a novel updating rule IBE**. We then inspect how it performs in comparison to its Bayesian counterpart, Jeffrey conditionalization (JC), in a number of simulations where two agents, each updating by IBE** and JC, respectively, try to detect the bias of a coin while they are only partially certain what side the coin landed on. We show that IBE** more often prescribes high probability to the actual bias than JC. We also show that this happens considerably faster, that IBE** passes higher thresholds for high probability, and that it in general leads to more accurate probability distributions than JC. 1 Introduction 2 Generalizing Inference to the Best Explanation to Uncertain Evidential Situations 3 Detecting the Bias of a Coin 4 Overall Performance of IBE** versus Jeffrey Conditionalization 5 Speed of Convergence 6 The Threshold for High Subjective Probability 7 Epistemic Inaccuracy 8 Conclusions

Dieser Datensatz wurde nicht während einer Tätigkeit an der Universität Mannheim veröffentlicht, dies ist eine Externe Publikation.

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ORCID: Trpin, Borut ; Pellert, Max ORCID: 0000-0002-6557-7607

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