Committing to grow: Privatizations and firm dynamics in East Germany


Akcigit, Ufuk ; Alp, Harun ; Diegmann, André ; Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas


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URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-661923
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2023
The title of a journal, publication series: ZEW Discussion Papers
Volume: 23-039
Place of publication: Mannheim
Publication language: English
Institution: Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
MADOC publication series: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: D22 , D24 , J08 , L25,
Keywords (English): industrial policy , privatizations , productivity , size-dependent regulations
Abstract: This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment growth rate, a 14% points higher annual productivity growth, and a 3.6% points higher probability of exit for firms with binding employment targets. Our calibrated model further demonstrates that without these targets, aggregate employment would have been 15% lower after 10 years. Additionally, an alternative policy of productivity investment subsidies proved costly and less effective in the short term.




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