The political economy of immigration and population ageing


Dotti, Valerio


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URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/41185
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-411854
Dokumenttyp: Arbeitspapier
Erscheinungsjahr: 2016
Titel einer Zeitschrift oder einer Reihe: Working Paper Series
Band/Volume: 16-12
Ort der Veröffentlichung: Mannheim
Sprache der Veröffentlichung: Englisch
Einrichtung: Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft und Volkswirtschaftslehre > Finanzwissenschaft u. Wirtschaftspolitik (Janeba 2004-)
MADOC-Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics > Working Paper Series
Fachgebiet: 330 Wirtschaft
Fachklassifikation: JEL: D72 , C71 , J610 , H550,
Freie Schlagwörter (Englisch): Immigration , Ageing , Policy , Voting
Abstract: I investigate the effects of population ageing on immigration policies. Voters' attitude towards immigrants depends on how the net gains from immigration are divided up in the society by the fiscal policy. In the theoretical literature this aspect is treated as exogenous to the political process because of technical constraints. This generates inconsistent predictions about the policy outcome. I adopt a new equilibrium concept for voting models to analyse the endogenous relationship between immigration and fiscal policies and solve this apparent inconsistency. I show that the elderly and the poor have a common interest in limiting immigration and in increasing public spending. This exacerbates the effects of population ageing on public finances and results in a high tax burden on working age individuals and further worsens the age profile of the population. Moreover, I show that if the share of elderly population is suffciently large, then a society is unambiguously harmed by the tightening in the immigration policy caused by the demographic change. The implications of the model are consistent with the patterns observed in UK attitudinal data and in line with the findings of the empirical literature about migration.




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