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Distributional consequences of labor-demand shocks: the 2008–2009 recession in Germany
Bargain, Olivier
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Immervoll, Herwig
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Peichl, Andreas
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Siegloch, Sebastian
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URL:
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https://ssrn.com/abstract=1803111
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Additional URL:
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https://www.zew.de/publikationen/distributional-co...
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Document Type:
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Working paper
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Year of publication:
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2011
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The title of a journal, publication series:
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CESifo Working Papers
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Volume:
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3403
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Place of publication:
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München
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Publishing house:
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Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research
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ISSN:
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1617-9595 , 2364‐1428
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Publication language:
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English
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Institution:
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School of Law and Economics > Soziale Sicherung (Siegloch 2018-2022)
Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
School of Law and Economics > VWL, Quantitative Finanzwissenschaft (Peichl 2013-2017)
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Subject:
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330 Economics
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Classification:
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JEL:
D58 , J23 , H24 , H60,
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Keywords (English):
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labor demand , output shock , tax-benefit system , crisis , income distribution
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Abstract:
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The distributional consequences of the recent economic crisis are still broadly unknown. While it is possible to speculate which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking due to a lack of real-time microdata. This paper studies the distributional and fiscal implications of output changes in Germany 2008-09, using data available prior to the economic downturn. We first estimate labor demand on 12 years of detailed, administrative matched employer-employee data. The distributional analysis is then conducted by transposing predicted employment effects of actual output shocks to household-level microdata. A scenario in which labor demand adjustments occur at the intensive margin (hour changes), close to the German experience, shows less severe effects on income distribution compared to a situation where adjustments take place through massive layoffs. Adjustments at the intensive margin are also preferable from a fiscal point of view. In this context we discuss the cushioning effect of the tax-benefit system and the conditions under which German-style work-sharing policies can be successful in other countries.
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 | Dieser Datensatz wurde nicht während einer Tätigkeit an der Universität Mannheim veröffentlicht, dies ist eine Externe Publikation. |
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