Distributional consequences of labor-demand shocks: the 2008–2009 recession in Germany


Bargain, Olivier ; Immervoll, Herwig ; Peichl, Andreas ; Siegloch, Sebastian



URL: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1803111
Additional URL: https://www.zew.de/publikationen/distributional-co...
Document Type: Working paper
Year of publication: 2011
The title of a journal, publication series: CESifo Working Papers
Volume: 3403
Place of publication: München
Publishing house: Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research
ISSN: 1617-9595 , 2364‐1428
Publication language: English
Institution: School of Law and Economics > VWL, Soziale Sicherung (Siegloch 2018-)
Sonstige Einrichtungen > ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
School of Law and Economics > VWL, Quantitative Finanzwissenschaft (Peichl 2013-2017)
Subject: 330 Economics
Classification: JEL: D58 , J23 , H24 , H60,
Keywords (English): labor demand , output shock , tax-benefit system , crisis , income distribution
Abstract: The distributional consequences of the recent economic crisis are still broadly unknown. While it is possible to speculate which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking due to a lack of real-time microdata. This paper studies the distributional and fiscal implications of output changes in Germany 2008-09, using data available prior to the economic downturn. We first estimate labor demand on 12 years of detailed, administrative matched employer-employee data. The distributional analysis is then conducted by transposing predicted employment effects of actual output shocks to household-level microdata. A scenario in which labor demand adjustments occur at the intensive margin (hour changes), close to the German experience, shows less severe effects on income distribution compared to a situation where adjustments take place through massive layoffs. Adjustments at the intensive margin are also preferable from a fiscal point of view. In this context we discuss the cushioning effect of the tax-benefit system and the conditions under which German-style work-sharing policies can be successful in other countries.

Dieser Datensatz wurde nicht während einer Tätigkeit an der Universität Mannheim veröffentlicht, dies ist eine Externe Publikation.




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Bargain, Olivier ; Immervoll, Herwig ; Peichl, Andreas ; Siegloch, Sebastian (2011) Distributional consequences of labor-demand shocks: the 2008–2009 recession in Germany. CESifo Working Papers München 3403 [Working paper]


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